Changing life expectancy in Romania after the transition.

BACKGROUND While Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have seen impressive gains in life expectancy in the 1990s, Romania has not. In contrast with the other countries, there has been very little research on the causes of the pattern of mortality seen in Romania. OBJECTIVES To describe the trends in life expectancy at birth in Romania after the political transition in 1989 and to evaluate the contribution of deaths from different causes and different ages to these changes. METHODS Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death using routine data on mortality for the years 1990, 1996, and 1998; comparison of death rates by age, sex, and cause of death. RESULTS Romania has experienced an overall decline of 1.71 years of life expectancy at birth from 1990 to 1996 in men and 0.54 years in women. The major contribution to this decline was an increase in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diseases of the digestive system, in particular cirrhosis, among the middle aged and elderly. The recovery observed in 1998, of 1.12 years in men and 0.89 years in women, was mainly caused by a reduction in deaths from cardiovascular disease in the middle aged and elderly. Infant and early childhood mortality fell throughout the period but there was an increase of approximately 40% in mortality at age 5-9 that was almost entirely attributable to AIDS. CONCLUSION This is the first Romanian study that describes the evolution of life expectancy after transition. Romania may at last be beginning to follow the path of improving adult mortality seen in the early 1990s in some of its neighbours. It has, however, been unique in eastern Europe in experiencing increasing childhood mortality. This is attributable to an epidemic of paediatric AIDS, consequent on the tragically inappropriate policies adopted in the 1980s.